From its recent lows, the stock of consumer major Marico is up 7 per cent on the back of a better-than-expected June quarter performance and robust outlook. In a pre-quarter update, the management indicated that domestic volume growth should witness an improvement in FY25, while other segments (growth portfolio, international business) too would see traction going ahead. The near-term trigger is strong sales and operating performance for Q1FY25.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) delivered a stronger-than-expected operational performance in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25), driven by solid growth in its automotive (auto) and farm equipment segments. Higher volumes improved operating leverage, expanding margins.
Hero MotoCorp, a major player in the two-wheeler market, has seen a 9 per cent rise in its stock since the beginning of the month. This increase, driven by the largest motorcycle company by volume, is attributed to expectations of a revival in rural sales due to normal monsoons, government measures to boost consumption, recent market share gains, and a large valuation discount compared to peers. In the near term, the company's volume performance and growth trajectory, particularly in rural markets and entry-level segments, are expected to be key drivers.
Even as the near-term outlook for the quick service restaurant (QSR) industry remains muted, brokerages are positive about the prospects of Sapphire Foods India. Their preference for the QSR chain comes on the back of the steady performance of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), superior execution and reasonable valuations. The Sapphire Foods stock is up 11 per cent since the start of November.
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of India's leading airline IndiGo, delivered a better than expected performance across most parameters in Q2FY24. The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of net profit of Rs 188 crore. It had reported a loss of Rs 1,583 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
Shares of Bajaj Finance surged over 6 per cent on Thursday after the diversified non-banking finance company reported an 18 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter. The stock rallied 6.33 per cent intraday to touch Rs 8,249.95 - a 52-week high -- on the BSE.
Industry experts believe that health insurance companies are unlikely to experience business cannibalisation due to the central government's decision to extend health coverage to people aged 70 and above, regardless of their income level, under the Ayushman Bharat scheme. On Wednesday, the Union Cabinet expanded the Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY) to include all senior citizens aged 70 and older. This move is expected to benefit nearly 45 million families, comprising 60 million senior citizens, by providing Rs 5 lakh in free health insurance coverage per family.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
The Colgate-Palmolive (India) stock gained 2.3 per cent in trade on Friday, and ended at Rs 2,079 per share. This was on the back of a robust operating performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) and expectations of gradual sales recovery going ahead. While the stock is up 44 per cent from its lows in January this year, further gains will depend on its ability to sustain higher growth rates.
India's most valued company, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), reported a robust performance in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), surpassing analyst expectations. This coupled with positive commentary by brokerages led to the stock of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate surging as much as 4.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,325.1. It settled at Rs 1,301.3 apiece, up 2.57 per cent.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Container Corporation of India (Concor) has been the worst performer among major logistics & port stocks registering returns of about 4 per cent over the past three months as compared to 10-12 per cent for peers Gateway Distriparks and Adani Ports and SEZ. Uncertain outlook on the export-import (EXIM) trade front, market share loss, lack of progress on divestment, and weak June quarter results weighed on the stock. Volume and margin movement will be key triggers for the stock going ahead. As was the case in the previous quarter, margin performance was muted even in the June quarter. Operating profit in the quarter was down 17 per cent at Rs 391 crore missing estimates by over 15 per cent. Operating profit margins at 20.4 per cent, too, were down sharply by 350 basis points over the year-ago quarter.
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
Troubled IT firm Satyam Computer is likely to witness a free fall following its chairman Ramalinga Raju's resignation and his admittance of a major accounting fraud, while analysts expect the scrip may plunge to Rs 20 levels in coming days.
The Street's optimism on India's largest listed automotive maker by market capitalisation is not misplaced, given the robust wholesale performance in recent months and the strong 2023-24 (FY24) October-December (Q3) results.
Since its results, the stock of bottling and beverage distribution company Varun Beverages (VBL) is up 7 per cent on the back of a strong 2022-23 January-March quarter performance, robust outlook, and revision in profit estimates. Given the sharp uptick, it is now part of the trillion-rupee club, with its market capitalisation at Rs 1.01 trillion. The stock is one of the best performers in the consumer space as well as the S&P BSE 200, of which it is a constituent.
Analysts have given a thumbs up to the Reliance Industries (RIL) and Walt Disney Co. (Disney) proposed a joint venture (JV). The stock of the Mukesh Ambani-controlled company gained nearly 1.5 per cent on Thursday to Rs 2,952 levels as compared to the S&P BSE Sensex that traded marginally weak, down 0.2 per cent to 72,172 levels in intra-day trades.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the biggest laggards. Sun Pharma and Nestle were the only gainers.
The stock of Aditya Birla Fashion Retail is down 10 per cent from its February high. Even as the revenue performance of the apparel retail major in the October-December quarter's for the 2022-23 financial year (Q3FY23) was better than expected, the company saw brokerage downgrades, given the weak operating performance and the pressure on margins. This the second consecutive quarter of margin miss despite strong traction on the sales front.
Experts believe while escalation with Pakistan might not have a significant impact on trade economics, both India and China have major trade and investments in each others' economies. While the dispute might continue, it could have a temporary effect on the markets.
'Many do not have robust business models, and their prospects of survival and long-term growth are poor.'
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
Tata Motors' 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) results were better than Street estimates, with strong showing across Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), as well as commercial and passenger vehicle businesses in the domestic market. The company posted its highest consolidated top line and operating profit, with growth of 35 per cent and 46.5 per cent, respectively, over the year-ago quarter. While the top line was aided by a 49 per cent growth in the JLR unit, all key segments reported margin expansion.
The results of Indian IT services players in the just-concluded fourth quarter of 2021-22 are expected to reveal continuing growth momentum as demand surges on the back of digital transformations and the cloud shift, but analysts anticipate margins to be under pressure due to supply challenges. Analysts covering the sector expect revenue commentary should be strong despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation. Top-line growth will be driven by broad-based demand with a strong uptick for cloud, digital, cybersecurity, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, among other services.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio of major public sector and private sector banks during the October-December quarter of FY24 inched up as compared to the previous quarter though government-owned lenders reported a lower rate than their private peers. CD ratio is the ratio of the funds that banks lend as compared to the funds raised in the form of deposits. The CD ratio of top public sector banks (PSBs) - State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank - was lower than their private counterparts.
After a sharp fall in the share prices of HDFC Bank and other private sector lenders in the past three days, the BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) sector weighting in the Nifty50 has slipped to a seven-year low of 32.03 per cent, down from nearly 36.6 per cent at the end of March 2023 and 34.5 per cent at the end of December 2023.
Domestic quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund trading activity would dictate the movement in equity markets, which may face volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry this week, analysts said. Equity markets took a breather last week. The BSE Sensex declined 298.22 points or 0.48 per cent and the Nifty dipped 111.4 points or 0.60 per cent.
It's not only the Indian markets that command a valuation premium over their global peers; shares of subsidiaries of India-listed multinational companies (MNCs) also trade at rich valuations compared to their parent companies. An analysis of 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples of domestically listed MNCs shows that most quotes have a premium ranging from 2.1x to 6x that of their parent. Similarly, P/B, in most cases, is significantly higher in the domestic market.
Life insurance companies reported a 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in new business premium (NBP) in February as state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India's premiums contracted 32 per cent during this period on account of a drop in its group single premium segment. According to data released by the Life Insurance Council, the industry earned an NBP of Rs 22,847.65 crore in February - a drop of 17 per cent from the same period a year ago.
The EV industry is at an inflection point and batteries will play a critical role ahead -- batteries and related components typically constitute 35-45 per cent of an EV's costs.
Hotel companies, which have experienced substantial share price gains in the past six months, are not only expected to post robust revenue growth in the seasonally weak July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the trend continuing in the second half (H2) of FY24, but according to some analysts, they will also benefit from a structural uptrend in progress. To begin with, larger players in the listed hotel sector are expected to report strong growth in Q2 compared to the year-ago quarter. Led by higher demand from the business segment, the sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 15-30 per cent.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
The S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have hit record highs amid the poll outcome-triggered bull frenzy at the bourses. Most analysts feel that the indices are on course to rise further over the next few months - till the general elections - albeit amid intermittent corrections - largely triggered by global developments. Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) win in the three state elections of Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, analysts at Jefferies believe, reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of over 300 seats for the BJP.
'It is the best avenue for investors who would like to take long-term exposure to gold.'
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
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